A recent study published in the Science Advances journal highlights the potential of a global shift towards a predominantly plant-based “flexitarian” diet in curbing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting global heating to the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Prior research has consistently cautioned about the alarming trajectory of emissions from food production, indicating that current rates could push the world beyond the internationally agreed-upon target.
The new study, however, offers a glimmer of hope by showcasing how widespread adoption of a flexitarian diet, characterized by reduced meat consumption and increased intake of plant-based foods, could counteract this trend.
Florian Humpenöder, a senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the study’s authors, emphasized the multifaceted benefits of such a dietary transition. “A shift toward healthy diets would not only benefit the people, the land, and food systems,” he stated, “but also would have an impact on the total economy in terms of how fast emissions need to be reduced.”
The research underscores the potential role of policies aimed at pricing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to align with their true economic costs, thereby incentivizing emitters to mitigate their carbon footprints. Despite challenges in implementing such measures, their efficacy in driving behavioral change cannot be understated.
By modeling dietary shifts towards a flexitarian approach, the study projected significant reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture, alongside mitigated impacts on water usage, nitrogen levels, and biodiversity. Consequently, this could lead to substantial economic savings associated with healthcare and ecosystem preservation, while concurrently reducing the carbon pricing needed for emissions mitigation by 43% by the year 2050.
Furthermore, the study’s findings suggest that adopting a flexitarian diet could expedite efforts to limit peak warming to approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2045, necessitating less reliance on carbon dioxide removal compared to maintaining current dietary patterns.
“It’s important to stress that flexitarian is not vegetarian and not vegan,” Humpenöder clarified. “It’s less livestock products, especially in high-income regions, and the diet is based on what would be the best diet for human health.”
In the United States, agriculture accounts for over 10% of total GHG emissions, with livestock production being a primary contributor. Reducing meat consumption can free up agricultural land currently utilized for livestock farming, thereby mitigating methane emissions predominantly associated with animal agriculture.
Jason Hill, a professor at the University of Minnesota’s department of bioproducts and biosystems engineering, echoed the significance of dietary shifts in emissions reduction. “This paper further confirms what other studies have shown, which is that if we change our diets to a more flexitarian type, we can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” he emphasized.
The study authors propose various strategies to facilitate the transition towards healthier diets, including price-based incentives such as taxes on high-emission animal products like beef and lamb, as well as consumer education initiatives aimed at highlighting the environmental consequences of excessive meat consumption.
Hill emphasized the interconnectedness of the food system’s stakeholders, emphasizing the roles of producers, consumers, and government policies in shaping dietary patterns and agricultural practices. “There’s the producers, the consumers who choose what to eat, and in the US especially, the government, which supports the type of agriculture that leads to excess production of red meat,” he noted.