US retail sales of plant-based milk declined by 5.2% in the year leading up to July 14, with unit sales dropping 5.9%, according to new data from SPINS shared with AgFunderNews. The plant-based milk sector experienced varied trends within its subcategories: almond milk sales continued to fall, while sales of oat and soy milk remained relatively stable.
In comparison, US retail sales of dairy milk decreased by 2.1% to $17.2 billion over the same period, with unit sales down 0.8%. This decline in dairy milk sales has been ongoing, with only a brief increase during the pandemic.
Among plant-based milks, almond milk remains the largest category by dollar sales but saw an 8.5% drop to $1.5 billion, with unit sales down 8.9%. Despite its leading position, almond milk’s performance has been impacted by the overall trend in the sector.
Oat milk, which has previously experienced rapid growth, saw a 3% decrease in dollar sales year-over-year, totaling $608.6 million in the refrigerated segment. Unit sales in this category fell by 0.8%. However, oat milk experienced a notable increase in the shelf-stable segment, with sales rising 14.2% to $81.3 million and units up 11.5%.
Soy milk, once a dominant force in the plant-based milk market, has lost significant market share to almond and oat milk over the past decade. Sales of soy milk have plateaued at around $212 million, with unit sales decreasing by 3.9%.
The only major category showing substantial growth was coconut milk, which saw a 12.6% increase in dollar sales to $137 million and a 13.9% rise in units sold, though it remains a smaller segment compared to others.
US Retail Sales (52 weeks to July 14, 2024)
Plant-Based Milk: Dollars -5.2% to $2.85 billion, units -5.9%
Almond Milk: Dollars -8.5% to $1.55 billion, units -8.9%
Oat Milk: Dollars -1.25% to $690 million, units +0.5%
Soy Milk: Dollars +0.2% to $212 million, units -3.9%
Coconut Milk: Dollars +12.7% to $137 million, units +13.9%
Plant-Based Milk in Foodservice
In the foodservice sector, plant-based milk saw a significant increase in 2023, with sales growing by 21% to $222 million, capturing a 12% share of the total milk market in broadline distributor sales. Volumes in this segment rose 18%, according to a recent report from The Good Food Institute (GFI).
Over the past five years, dollar sales of plant-based milk in US foodservice have surged by 81% compared to 2019, with volumes up 55%. In contrast, conventional milk sales grew by 34% and volumes by 8% over the same period.
Additional insights from the GFI report indicate:
44% of US households purchased plant-based milk in 2023.
25% of these households also bought plant-based meat and seafood.
Plant-based milk accounted for nearly 15% of all milk dollar sales in US retail in 2023.
Households with children are more likely to spend more on plant-based milk.