The National Food Institute (NFI) forecasts a substantial 8.8% rise in the value of Thailand’s food exports this year, reaching 1.6 trillion baht. This growth is attributed to heightened global demand and a decrease in raw material prices, including tuna, sugar, soybeans, and wheat.
NFI President Supawan Teerarat noted, “The drop in raw material costs benefits the food processing sector.” For the first half of the year, Thai food exports surged 9.9% year-on-year to 852 billion baht.
Despite this optimistic outlook, food manufacturers and exporters are confronting challenges such as elevated freight rates driven by geopolitical tensions and a sluggish U.S. economy. According to KGI Securities (Thailand), the U.S. economy is projected to experience a cyclical slowdown starting late this year and extending through 2025, which may add pressure to Thailand’s export sector.
In the latter half of the year, food export values are anticipated to grow by 7.8% year-on-year to approximately 797 billion baht. The third quarter is expected to contribute around 395 billion baht, with the final quarter projected to reach 402 billion baht.
Last year, Thailand’s food exports totaled 1.51 trillion baht, boosted by global demand amid droughts, high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and economic slowdowns. While concerns over food security among Thailand’s trading partners could elevate demand, increased competition in the global market poses a challenge.
Supawan expressed confidence that Thailand’s reputation for high-quality products will continue to attract international orders. However, there are concerns over the growing volume of agricultural imports from China, such as fruits and vegetables, which negatively affect Thai farmers.
Despite these concerns, Thailand maintained a trade surplus with China last year, totaling 272 billion baht, thanks to food exports valued at 370 billion baht compared to imports worth 98 billion baht. For the first half of this year, Thailand’s trade surplus with China stood at approximately 132 billion baht.