Kazakhstan has imposed a ban on all fresh apple imports until the end of 2024, a decision that is expected to significantly impact both the regional and global apple markets, according to EastFruit.
Historically, Kazakhstan has imported approximately 100,000 tons of apples annually, positioning it among the top 20-25 apple importers worldwide. Over the years, Poland has been the primary supplier, accounting for over half of Kazakhstan’s apple imports. Notably, a substantial portion of these apples was intended for the Russian market, as previously reported by EastFruit analysts.
In 2024, adverse weather conditions have severely impacted apple harvests in Russia and Belarus, leading to concerns about record-high prices for apples in these countries. With rising inflation already straining their economies, Russia and Belarus have been seeking lower-cost apple sources, often from so-called “unfriendly countries,” despite longstanding import restrictions.
The situation is compounded by a potential shortage of apples in the European Union and Eastern European countries, which could drive prices even higher during the 2024/25 season. Poland’s apple season has begun with record-high prices, which, despite a seasonal decrease due to non-storable apples being sold, may rise again as the harvest concludes.
Kazakhstan’s import ban effectively closes one of the few remaining semi-legal channels for delivering EU apples to the Russian market, particularly at a time when prices might have been more manageable. As a result, apple prices in Russia are already nearing record highs for this time of year, suggesting even higher prices for the 2024/25 season.
For Poland, losing access to the Kazakh market is a significant setback. Kazakhstan is among the top three or four most important markets for Polish apple traders, comparable to markets in Egypt or Romania. The loss is particularly impactful given the relatively lower quality requirements of the Kazakh market compared to the EU.
It is important to note that the ban is currently set to last until the end of 2024, with little indication that it will be extended. There remains a possibility that the ban could be lifted earlier if Russia exerts pressure on Kazakhstan.
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