Climate change and extreme weather events are significantly affecting agricultural production in Mediterranean countries, jeopardizing the region’s iconic lifestyle and dietary habits. The Mediterranean diet, widely recognized as one of the healthiest in the world, is under threat as these environmental shifts increase food prices and disrupt traditional food sources.
Mediterranean Diet’s Endangerment
The Mediterranean diet, chosen as the healthiest diet for seven consecutive years by U.S. News & World Report and added to UNESCO’s Intangible Cultural Heritage List in 2010, is facing significant challenges. The region’s vulnerability to climate change is putting increasing pressure on the very components that define this iconic diet.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Mediterranean region is warming at a rate 20% faster than the global average. The region’s water demand is expected to double by 2050, and temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 to 3.5 degrees Celsius (3.24 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. This rise in temperature will lead to a 10%-15% reduction in rainfall, further threatening agricultural production.
Decreasing Outdoor Activity
Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reveals a troubling decline in outdoor activity in Mediterranean countries due to rising temperatures. In Portugal, for instance, the number of outdoor days could drop by 33 in the worst-case scenario by 2100, and by seven in the best-case scenario. Other countries, such as Greece, Spain, Morocco, and Italy, are also expected to see significant reductions in outdoor activities.
Climate Crisis Impact on Food Production
A study conducted by the University of Padova in Italy titled The Effects of Climate Change on the Mediterranean Diet in Italy forecasts that climate change will worsen droughts and soil erosion, increasing the need for irrigation by 4% to 18%. Water scarcity in the region is expected to rise by 28% to 48%, with hydraulic droughts, which affect river flows, becoming more frequent. If global temperatures rise by 3°C, drought intensity could double in some Mediterranean areas.
Extreme weather events, particularly those in 2022, caused significant damage to the region’s olive oil production. Warm spring temperatures and winds from the Sahara Desert harmed flowering and pollination, leading to a 39% drop in European olive oil production. Italy, the largest producer, experienced a 54% reduction, while other countries like Spain, France, and Portugal also saw declines in production.
Similarly, cereal production has suffered, with corn yields dropping by 30% in France, 20% in Spain, and 23% in Italy in 2022. In 2023, fruit production also declined across the region, with apple, peach, and tomato yields falling by significant margins.
Marine Life and Pollution
The Mediterranean Sea is also under pressure, with over 30% of its marine habitats at risk due to pollution, invasive species, and overfishing, according to the European Parliament’s 2024 report. More than 20% of species in the region are classified as “sensitive,” with 11% considered “endangered.” The loss of seagrass habitats, essential for many fish species, is expected to have serious consequences for marine ecosystems and regional fisheries.
From 1950 to 2011, the Mediterranean lost 40% of its top predator species, including marine mammals, and 34% of its fish species. Experts predict that by the end of the century, over 30 endemic species will go extinct.
The Importance of Physical Activity
Professor Yüksel Altuntaş, an expert at the Şişli Hamidiye Etfal Training and Research Hospital in Turkey, highlighted the Mediterranean diet’s focus on physical activity and socializing as key aspects of its health benefits. The region’s sunny climate encourages outdoor exercise, while shared meals contribute to healthier digestion and weight control.
He emphasized that the Mediterranean diet—rich in whole grains, vegetables, fruits, olive oil, fish, and legumes—has been shown to reduce the risk of various diseases, including cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular conditions. However, the presence of microplastics and heavy metals in Mediterranean fish may pose health risks.
Rising Food Prices
Food anthropologist Alessandra Guigoni from Sardinia explained that in the Mediterranean, particularly in southern Italy, climate change is pushing up food prices, making it more difficult for people to access fresh produce. For example, fresh figs cost up to 1 euro each in summer, and many local products now require long trips to buy directly from farmers.
Olive oil, a crucial part of the Mediterranean diet, has also become more expensive due to reduced production. This has led people to seek alternative oils, further changing traditional eating habits.
The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture
Professor Paolo Tarolli from the University of Padova emphasized that rising temperatures and seasonal shifts are creating water stress across the Mediterranean. Crops like olives, which require substantial irrigation, are particularly vulnerable to these changes.
In countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey, growing olives has become increasingly difficult. This trend threatens the very foundation of the Mediterranean diet, which relies heavily on olives and olive oil.
Tarolli warned that if prices continue to rise, people may face significant challenges in maintaining a healthy diet, leading to sacrifices in other areas of life. He stressed the need for cooperation among countries and the integration of scientific research, policymakers, and new technologies to combat these challenges.
Conclusion
The Mediterranean diet, once a symbol of health and tradition, is now at risk due to the severe impacts of climate change. Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and water shortages are disrupting agricultural production, making essential foods more expensive and harder to obtain. As the region faces these challenges, the future of the Mediterranean diet will depend on global cooperation and innovative solutions to adapt to these rapidly changing conditions.
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