The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has sparked significant disruptions across the global food supply chain, resulting in price hikes and heightened food security concerns, especially for impoverished regions in the Middle East and North Africa, according to an unclassified report released by the top US spy agency to Congress on Wednesday.
The report, spanning eight pages, highlights that both direct and indirect consequences of the conflict contributed to “one of the most disruptive periods in decades for global food security.” This disruption stems in large part from Ukraine and Russia’s pivotal roles as major pre-war exporters of agricultural products, including grain.
While the report notes a moderation in food security concerns since the beginning of the year, it underscores that the future trajectory of global food prices hinges on developments related to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Russia terminated in July. Facilitated by the United Nations, this initiative enabled Ukrainian agricultural exports to flow through Black Sea ports to reach international markets safely.
The ongoing conflict’s impact on Ukraine’s agricultural capabilities, coupled with the availability and cost of fertilizers, will also exert influence over global food prices. The report emphasizes that elevated global oil and natural gas prices drove global fertilizer prices to nearly record levels in mid-2022.
“The combination of high domestic food prices and historic levels of sovereign debt in many countries – largely caused by spending and recessionary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic – has weakened countries’ capacity to respond to heightened food insecurity risks,” the report highlights. “These factors probably will undermine the capacity of many poor countries to provide sufficient and affordable food to their population through the end of the year.”
Droughts in the past year across Canada, the Middle East, South America, and the United States have compounded the stress on global food supplies resulting from the conflict, the report further reveals.
Past allegations of Russia weaponizing food supplies by blocking Ukrainian exports, damaging infrastructure, and occupying agricultural land are reiterated in the report. Drawing on satellite imagery and open-source reporting, the report alleges that Russia confiscated nearly 6 million tons of Ukrainian wheat harvested from occupied territories in 2022. Cargo ships utilized to transport this wheat from Russian-occupied zones in 2022 would navigate along the Turkish coast to deliver shipments to ports in Syria, Israel, Iran, Georgia, and Lebanon, according to the report.
The report refrains from confirming whether the buyers of the Russian shipments were aware of the origin of the grains. Mandated by the annual intelligence authorization bill, the report was released by the House Intelligence Committee.
In response, Representative Mike Turner and Representative Jim Himes, committee leaders, issued a joint statement underscoring the broader consequences of the conflict on global food security. They also emphasized the strategic utilization of food security by Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed concern over Russia’s decision to cease the Black Sea Grain Initiative, potentially exacerbating the crisis and leaving vulnerable nations grappling with food shortages.